It’s not just the cold that’s biting this 2023 December. As the festive season kicks off, a worrying trend is surfacing: COVID-19 cases are soaring again, not only in India but around the world. From the hustle and bustle of city life to the serenity of family gatherings, COVID-19 is making its presence felt. It’s more than just a blip, it is a possible winter wave that threatens to derail festive plans. In India, we’re on the brink of a new variant, while nations like the United States and Europe are struggling with their own recoveries. But amid the surge, there’s also a glimmer of hope. As experts call for vigilance, boosters, and masks, they remind us that we’re still in the middle of a pandemic that’s far from over. Let’s rewrite the story this December with care, responsibility, and a renewed focus on safety. Join me as we dive deeper into COVID’s rise and variants as we navigate this December surge, one informed decision at a time.
Since the opening of the world and getting back to our normal lives of not being constructed to our homes, we have forgotten the long-lasting impact of COVID-19. However, the horrors of COVID-19 are coming back slowly and slowly. As the entire world is preparing for the festive seasons and a long break from their offices, a shadow emerges back. A sudden risk in COVID-19 cases particularly in December 2023 has been observed by the health experts. This sudden trend is observed not just in the Indian state of Kerala, but also in several international countries. As the cases are peaking the charts, concerns about a potential winter wave of worrisome is approaching the doorsteps of different countries.
Picture of COVID-19 cases in India
A sudden uprise of COVID-19 cases was observed in December 2023. The southern state of India, Kerala has witnessed an increase in COVID cases after the detection of JN.1; a sub-variant of COVID-19. JN.1 a sub-variant is closely related to BA.2.86, a fellow Omicron variant that first popped up in the U.S this past summer (WHO, May 2021) (https://time.com/6548748/jn1-covid-variant/), previously found in China. BBC News (Dec 2023), (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67724695) stated that. “The southern Indian state currently has 1,324 COVID-19 active cases and reported four deaths from the disease on Saturday. Officials have attributed this to the high testing rate in the state. But it’s not clear how many of these cases are related to JN.1. Only a small number of samples are routinely genome sequenced to keep track of different variants of the virus”.
The news further states that the JN.1 sub-variant was found earlier this month (December) in a 79 year old woman who showed mild symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI) and since then she has fully recovered. In the meantime, India’s federal health ministry has conducted mock clinical trials in hospitals across the country to test their readiness to cope with a sudden surge in Covid cases. However, officials have not directly attributed the exercises to the sub-variant JN.1. However, the ICMR has reported an increase in the number of cases of COVID-19 in Kerala. “There has been an increasing trend of COVID-19 cases from the state of Kerala since the last few weeks. This has been attributed to an increase in the number of samples from influenza-like illness (ILI) cases being referred for testing,” Rajiv Bahl, Director General of the ICMR, said (BBC News Dec 2023).
International Scenario
The picture abroad is more varied, with several countries experiencing significant jumps in cases.
In the United States, the number of cases is steadily increasing, the surge is being driven by the BQ.1 sub-variety, especially in the Northeast region. Experts predict a possible winter peak and recommend booster shots and wearing masks in crowded areas.
In Europe, several countries are experiencing a resurgence, including Germany, France, and Italy. The BQ.1 and XBB variants are also affecting these areas. Authorities are encouraging people to wear masks in public places and promoting booster vaccination.
In China, there has been an increase in cases since the reopening of the country’s zero COVID policy, which is being attributed to the BF.7 sub-variety. This is causing concern due to the large population and low booster vaccination coverage in the country. Authorities are increasing testing and targeting lockdowns.
In Malaysia, 20,696 cases have been reported between 10-16 December 2023. In Malaysia, the number of new infections increased by 57.3% to 3,626 in the week ending 2nd December, compared with the previous week. The trend continued in the following week, with the number of infections reaching 6,796, and the death of 28 people so far (The Strait Time Dec 2023) (https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysia-not-reinstating-lockdown-restrictions-despite-a-rise-in-covid-19-cases). According to the latest available data (from December 18th), there has been a slight decrease in the number of infections, but the situation is still fluid. Besides that, The Health Minister of Malaysia, Dr Dzulkefly added that they have prepared a five-point strategy to deal with the recent sudden spike of Covid cases. This five-point strategy includes early detection via the HLS (Heightened Alert System) and community tracing through the TRIPs (testing, reporting, isolating, informing, and searching) system, health facility monitoring, and risk communication. Further, Dr Dzulkefly also mentioned that 97% of new cases were of low-risk categories.
Singapore has also seen a rise in the number of Covid cases. Compared to November 2023, Singapore recorded 56,043 cases by December 9 which is a jump of 75 percent from 32,035. In addition, the number of people admitted to hospital on an average basis rose to 350 from 225 last week (ABP Dec 2023) (https://news.abplive.com/health/covid-variant-jn1-cases-rising-asian-countries-singapore-china-indonesia-malaysia-india-1650846). According to a Bloomberg report, JN 1 variant cases account for about 60 percent of the island nation’s Covid-related infections. The government has already requested public hospitals to increase staff and postpone non-emergency elective surgeries to increase bed capacity. For those diagnosed with Acute Respiratory Tract Infections (ARDS), the government has urged them to stay home and limit contact with other people. Airport passengers should wear masks and buy travel insurance. The government has also offered flu vaccines free of charge to those who have enrolled in the national healthcare system. For people aged 60 and over who are medically vulnerable, the government has recommended taking an extra booster dose if it has been one year since the last vaccine dose.
Expert Opinions
Despite the geographical variations, a common thread emerges in the advice from experts across the globe:
- Boosters: Emphasize the importance of booster vaccinations to enhance protection against new variants.
- Masking: Recommend mask-wearing in crowded indoor settings and on public transportation.
- Surveillance: Advocate for continued genomic sequencing and surveillance to track emerging variants.
- Preparedness: Urge healthcare systems to remain prepared for a potential increase in hospitalizations.
The spike in cases may not be a sign of a major winter surge, but it’s a reminder that we are still dealing with a pandemic that is far from over. Prevention, immunization, and follow-up remain critical to managing this December surge and containing COVID-19.
